Analysts think GTA 6 moves 55 million copies by March, and the average copy sells for about $90

So IBD rounded up a bunch of analyst notes on Take-Two and GTA 6, and the numbers people are throwing around are genuinely silly. BMO's Brian Pitz figures 55 million copies across Take-Two's fiscal 2027, which wraps March 31. He's also got 45 million in the launch quarter alone. The consensus IBD put together was 34.2 million for that quarter, so he's way out ahead of the room.

Mat Piscatella from Circana basically said there's no comparison point. Big launches happen, sure, but nothing at this scale, not the money going in and not the hype coming out. His words were something like it being in its own league. Hard to argue with him.

the $90 number is the interesting part

Andrew Marok at Raymond James is forecasting 50 million for the fiscal year and a blended average selling price near $90. Remember we've got the $80 standard and the $100 Ultimate Edition, so that average means a whole lot of people are going Ultimate. Sensor Tower's early pre-order data apparently skews toward the hundred dollar version, though by launch it could settle closer to 50/50.

That tracks for me. If you're already dropping eighty on the biggest game of the decade, another twenty for whatever's in the Ultimate doesn't feel like a hard sell to most people.

and then there's the online side

Morgan Stanley's Matthew Cost pointed out that a strong launch builds a massive ready-made audience for whatever the next version of GTA Online turns into. Rockstar hasn't said a word about online for GTA 6 yet, but come on. GTA Online printed money for a decade. It's happening.

Cost called it the next big catalyst for Take-Two's stock, which is down around 10% this year and sitting near $228. Wyatt Swanson at D.A. Davidson thinks it could hit $300, partly because he expects a PC version and a full GTA Online successor down the line.

Obviously a new Online means microtransactions and all the rest of it. Annoying as a player, great if you're holding the stock. That's just the deal we've all made with this company at this point.

Do you reckon the average sale really lands near $90, or are analysts getting carried away with the Ultimate Edition numbers?

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Source: GameSpot · Curated content.