server stability on launch night — i'm betting on a 48-hour meltdown

GTA Online's launch in 2013 was a complete disaster. Infinite loading screens, character wipes, the whole mess. And that was just a mode tacked onto a game that had already sold 30 million copies. GTA 6 is the full package, day one, with pre-orders that probably broke every record Rockstar had. The server load won't just be high, it'll be an extinction-level event.

Rockstar's had years to prepare, sure. They've scaled up infrastructure. But no stress test simulates 20 million people hammering the login at once. I'm a completionist, so I'll be deep in single-player for the first week anyway, but I still expect the online component to be a queue simulator for at least 48 hours. Maybe 72. The real question is whether they can avoid the progress-wiping bugs that plagued GTA Online's first month. I'm less optimistic there.

I'm putting the over/under at 48 hours of intermittent service, and I'm taking the over. Anyone who thinks it'll be smooth is delusional.