psn goes down on launch night, how screwed are we really?

Remember when you just popped the disc in and played? No activation, no day-one patch, no server handshake just to get past the title screen. I'm looking at this $79.99 pre-order and wondering how much of launch night is gonna be staring at a "connecting" spinner if PSN takes a dive.

Code-in-a-box. That's what worries me. If the disc is just a key and the game needs to phone home to unlock, we're at Sony's mercy. And you know the servers are gonna get hammered. Add a mandatory day-one patch and suddenly your single-player campaign is held hostage by network infrastructure.

I've got my old PS2 hooked up in the basement. If the servers melt, I'm just gonna fire up the original Vice City and pretend it's 2002 again. At least that game doesn't need to check in with anyone.

What's your offline contingency? Or are we all just praying the PSN gods smile on us that night?