citi bank says red dead 3 by 2028 might not be crazy, but rockstar's own history says otherwise

Citi's analysts put out a note about Rockstar and GTA 6, and buried in there is a line about the next Red Dead game. They're saying if Rockstar was telling the truth that GTA 6 didn't actually cost $1.5 billion to make, then a new Red Dead in 2027 or 2028 "may not be unreasonable." I read that and had to double check the year.

GameSpot's piece does a good job of explaining why that timeline is basically fantasy. Rockstar has historically left huge gaps between major releases. Red Dead Redemption came out in 2010, GTA 5 in 2013, Red Dead Redemption II in 2018, and now GTA 6 is landing in 2026. That's a pattern of 3 to 8 year waits, not a two year turnaround.

There's also the fact that Rockstar tried to develop GTA 6 and Red Dead Redemption II at the same time. It didn't work. Studio head Rob Nelson had to reassign staff from GTA 6 over to RDR2 just to get that game out the door. Rockstar admitted the concurrent approach was too ambitious. Since then, their teams work on one project together and then move to the next. So the idea that they'd have a whole new Red Dead ready a year or two after GTA 6 ships doesn't match how they operate now.

And that's before you even factor in GTA 6 post-launch support. Rockstar hasn't officially announced GTA 6 Online, but everyone expects some kind of massive online component that'll need years of updates. That's a huge resource drain. They're not going to have a full Red Dead team spinning up immediately after launch.

I get that banks want to pump Take-Two stock, but this note feels like someone looked at a calendar and forgot how Rockstar actually makes games. I'd be shocked if we see Red Dead 3 before 2030, let alone 2027.

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Source: GameSpot · Curated content.