GameSpot ran the numbers on GTA 6 launch records and I'm trying to wrap my head around the scale

GameSpot put together a piece on the records GTA 6 might break when it drops November 19, and honestly the numbers from past Rockstar launches are still wild to look at. GTA 5 pulled in $800 million in its first 24 hours and hit a billion within three days. That was back in 2013. Red Dead 2 did $725 million over its opening weekend. Even Fallout 4, which isn't Rockstar, shipped 12 million copies on launch day for around $750 million in sales.

So the bar is already stupid high. GTA 6 has to beat all of those to claim the crown. Sensor Tower is projecting something like 25 million preorders by launch, which if that's even close would blow past GTA 5's early numbers. The higher price tag helps too. Standard edition is $80 now versus $60 back then. Though GameSpot pointed out that $60 in 2013 is about $85 today with inflation, so the real comparison is closer than it looks. Still, 25 million preorders at $80 a pop is a lot of money before the game even unlocks.

What gets me is that GTA 5 kept selling for a decade and is past 230 million copies. GTA 6 doesn't need to match that lifetime total to break launch records, but the hype feels bigger than anything I've seen. No PC version announced yet either, so this is all PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. That might cap the day one numbers a bit compared to if PC was there, but console preorders alone are reportedly massive.

I keep thinking about whether Rockstar can actually top a billion in 24 hours. GTA 5 did $800 million and that was with a $60 price. At $80, you'd need fewer units to hit the same revenue. If they really have 25 million preorders, that's already $2 billion before launch day even starts. Obviously not all preorders are day one revenue, but the math is insane.

What's your prediction for GTA 6's first 24 hours? Do you think it cracks a billion, or does the lack of a PC version hold it back enough that it falls short?

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Source: GameSpot · Curated content.