89% of people polled think GTA 6 takes Game of the Year, and I can't tell if that's confidence or just math

Insider Gaming ran a piece on a survey where 89% of respondents said GTA 6 will win Game of the Year at The Game Awards. Not a close call. Not a debate. Basically nine out of ten people assuming the trophy's already got Rockstar's name on it.

Two ways to read that number. One, it's genuine confidence in the game. Two, it's a popularity poll, and popularity polls about GTA are about as surprising as water being wet. The franchise could ship a menu screen and people would vote for it.

the awards calendar is the real story here

GTA 6 lands November 19. The Game Awards usually happen in December. That's a couple of weeks between launch and voting. Which means the whole thing hinges on a game most people will have played for maybe twenty hours when ballots go out. First impressions carrying a lot of weight.

Compare that to whatever else is in the running. Some of those games have been out for months, people have finished them, sat with them, argued about them. GTA 6 gets a fortnight and a vibe. And it probably still wins, because that's how this stuff works.

89% is less a prediction and more a reflection of how locked in the hype is right now.

I don't think anyone's actually sitting down and weighing GTA 6 against the competition on merit. It's November, the game's about to drop, everyone's counting down, and the survey caught people at their most hyped. Ask the same question in March and the number probably looks different.

what would actually be wild

GTA 6 losing. Imagine the discourse. Imagine the threads. I'd honestly pay to watch that meltdown, and I say that as someone who's had the Ultimate Edition locked in since pre-orders opened. A sweep feels inevitable, a snub would be the most entertaining thing to happen to this community all year.

Either way the survey tells you more about the room than the game. People are ready. Two weeks out and nobody's pretending to be neutral anymore. I'm not either.

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Source: Insider Gaming · Curated content.